Research article
Reaching the Healthy People Goals for Reducing Childhood Obesity: Closing the Energy Gap

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2012.01.018Get rights and content

Background

The federal government has set measurable goals for reducing childhood obesity to 5% by 2010 (Healthy People 2010), and 10% lower than 2005–2008 levels by 2020 (Healthy People 2020). However, population-level estimates of the changes in daily energy balance needed to reach these goals are lacking.

Purpose

To estimate needed per capita reductions in youths' daily “energy gap” (calories consumed over calories expended) to achieve Healthy People goals by 2020.

Methods

Analyses were conducted in 2010 to fit multivariate models using National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1971–2008 (N=46,164) to extrapolate past trends in obesity prevalence, weight, and BMI among youth aged 2–19 years. Differences in average daily energy requirements between the extrapolated 2020 levels and Healthy People scenarios were estimated.

Results

During 1971–2008, mean BMI and weight among U.S. youth increased by 0.55 kg/m2 and by 1.54 kg per decade, respectively. Extrapolating from these trends to 2020, the average weight among youth in 2020 would increase by ∼1.8 kg from 2007–2008 levels. Averting this increase will require an average reduction of 41 kcal/day in youth's daily energy gap. An additional reduction of 120 kcal/day and 23 kcal/day would be needed to reach Healthy People 2010 and Healthy People 2020 goals, respectively. Larger reductions are needed among adolescents and racial/ethnic minority youth.

Conclusions

Aggressive efforts are needed to reverse the positive energy imbalance underlying the childhood obesity epidemic. The energy-gap metric provides a useful tool for goal setting, intervention planning, and charting progress.

Introduction

Since the 1970s, the prevalence of obesity in the U.S. doubled among preschool children and adolescents, and more than tripled among children aged 6–11 years.1 Based on the most recent data, one of every six U.S. children and adolescents aged 2–19 years are obese (defined as having a BMI ≥95th age- and gender-specific percentiles).2, 3 The prevalence of obesity is highest in lower-income populations and African-American and Hispanic populations.4

A landmark IOM report in 2006 indicated that childhood obesity prevention efforts remained too few, too small, and too fragmented5; it recommended setting benchmark goals to drive action plans and allocate resources.6 Changes in obesity prevalence remain the primary metric used to track national progress on reducing childhood obesity. Each decade, the DHHS released and monitored a list of health objectives to guide the nation's health promotion and disease prevention efforts. Along with several targets for better nutrition and more-active lifestyles, Healthy People 2010 set the goal of reducing the percentage of children and adolescents who are obese to 5%—the level observed in the early 1970s—by 2010.7

To meet this goal, numerous policy- and community-level initiatives have been launched to change one or both sides of the energy-balance equation for children and adolescents—by reducing calories consumed or increasing calories expended from physical activity. Despite evidence for recent stabilization,2, 4 it is clear that a 5% target was extremely ambitious (even for 2020). The new Healthy People 2020 goal, released in November 2010, set a more modest target of reducing the prevalence of obesity by 10% from 2005–2008 levels among youth aged 2–19 years—to bring overall prevalence down to 14.6% by 2020. Healthy People 2020 goals also specified age-specific childhood obesity targets: 9.6% among children aged 2–5 years, 15.7% among children aged 6–11 years, and 16.1% among adolescents aged 12–19 years.

These concrete Healthy People goals provide benchmarks for charting our progress in reversing the childhood obesity epidemic. However, what has been missing is a metric for linking these obesity prevalence targets to interventions with the potential to restore energy balance at the population level. The objective of this study is to propose a framework for estimating the sizes of daily per capita “energy gap” reductions (kcal/person/day) needed to reach both Healthy People 2010 and Healthy People 2020 prevalence targets by 2020. Estimates are developed by extrapolating annual changes in youth body weight and obesity prevalence observed during the period from 1971 to 2008 overall and among sociodemographic subgroups.

Section snippets

Data

Data on height and weight among U.S. children and adolescents aged 2–19 years were obtained from the following waves of National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES): 1971–1975 (N=7040); 1976–1980 (N=7351); 1988–1994 (N=10,793); and 1999–2008 (N=20,680 including 1999–2000, 2001–2002, 2003–2004, 2005–2006, 2007–2008, 2009–2010).8, 9, 10, 11 Each wave of NHANES is an unequal probability sample with a multistage, clustered, and stratified sampling design, to ensure that each sample

Secular Trends in Obesity and Average Weight

Appendix B (available online at www.ajpmonline.org) summarizes the sample size and prevalence of obesity across time periods covered by NHANES surveys. Controlling for age, gender, and race/ethnicity, there was a small increase in mean height during the past 30 years among U.S. youth (Table 1; +0.3 cm per decade, p-value for trend <0.01). In contrast to the small changes in average height, average body weights increased significantly by 1.54 kg (95% CI=1.34, 1.74 per decade), with larger

Discussion

Monitoring secular trends using long time series of nationally representative population data is an essential component of goal setting and policy planning.15 Using surveys from 1971 to 2008, the current paper describes the upward trends in obesity prevalence, body weight, BMI, and BMI z-scores among the U.S. pediatric population. Consistent with prior studies,16 since the early 1970s U.S. youth have increased their average BMI by 0.5 per decade and their average weight by 1.5 kg per decade. If

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