Table 2

The overall prediction performance of the unfavourable future 20MSRT status and development

	AUC	95 % CI	P value	Sensitivity	95 % CI	Specificity	95 % CI
Task 1	Unfavourable future 20MSRT status (identification of individuals in the lowest 20MSRT tertile after 2 years)
Girls	0.83	0.76 to 0.90	<0.001	0.80	0.69 to 0.91	0.78	0.74 to 0.82
Boys	0.76	0.71 to 0.81	<0.001	0.60	0.52 to 0.68	0.79	0.74 to 0.84
Task 2	Unfavourable 20MSRT development (identification of individuals with 20MSRT development in the lowest tertile among adolescents with baseline 20MSRT below median level)
Girls	0.68	0.60 to 0.76	0.001	0.59	0.50 to 0.68	0.70	0.59 to 0.81
Boys	0.40	0.29 to 0.51	0.108	0.13	0.04 to 0.22	0.79	0.70 to 0.88

P value: statistical difference of the AUC value from the random level of 0.5; Sensitivity: individuals correctly predicted to belong to the explored group; Specificity: individuals correctly predicted not to belong to the explored group.
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; ;20MSRT, 20-m shuttle run test.