Table 3

Sensitivity analysis excluding respondents with trajectory assignment probability <80% and excluding the last 12 months of claims data

Trajectory category and numberExcluding
Respondents with trajectory assignment probabilities <80%
(n=18 883)
Last 12 months of claims
(n=20 234)
NHealthcare cost difference (US$)
(95% CI)
Percent difference
(95% CI)
NHealthcare cost difference (US$)
(95% CI)
Percent difference
(95% CI)
Maintainers
 13808ReferentREF3686ReferentREF
 84897−1115 (−1703 to −528)−13.2 (−20.1 to −6.2)4964−696 (−1089 to −303)−11.6 (−18.2 to −5.1)
 32088−1269 (−1991 to −547)−15.0 (−23.5 to −6.5)2550−947 (−1382 to −511)−15.8 (−23.1 to −8.6)
Increasers
 4909−1760 (−2690 to −831)−20.8 (−31.7 to −9.8)1098−949 (−1536 to −362)−15.9 (−25.7 to −6.1)
 21943−762 (−1529 to 6)−9.0 (−18.0 to 0.1)1839−494 (−991 to 3)−8.3 (−16.6 to 0.1)
Decreasers
 61466184 (−722 to 1091)2.2 (−8.5 to 12.9)1880−246 (−754 to 262)−4.1 (−12.6 to 4.4)
 91774−54 (−861 to 753)−0.6 (−10.2 to 8.9)164848 (−517 to 612)−0.8 (−8.7 to 10.2)
 5438−920 (−2014 to 174)−10.9 (−23.8 to 2.1)1030−501 (−1078 to 75)−8.4 (−18.0 to 1.3)
 71560−111 (−929 to 707)−1.3 (−11.0 to 8.3)1539−182 (−711 to 346)−3.0 (−11.9 to 5.8)
  • Healthcare cost differences after adjusting for age, sex, marital status, race/ethnicity, education attainment, smoking status, BMI at age 18, location of residence and television viewing status from RFQ (model 1). Based on two-part model —log link and Poisson distribution. Per cent difference calculated using recycled predictions. (Reference group: exclude trajectory assignment <80% US$8473/year; exclude last 12 months of life US$5976/year).

  • REF: Reference group is based on respondents that responded never, rarely, or <1 hour/week when asked how often they participated in moderate and vigorous activities in middle age (43–64 years).

  • RFQ, Risk Factor Questionnaire.