Table 3

HR (95% CI) and concordance for CVD risk and all-cause mortality for the different models

A: HR (95% CI) per decile and concordance for CVD risk and all-cause mortality for model 1–6 in the full sample (n=316 116)
	CVD risk		All-cause mortality
	HR (95% CI)	Concordance	HR (95% CI)	Concordance
		All (n=316 116)
	4760 events		2936 deaths
Model 1	0.937 (0.93 to 0.95)*	0.80 (SE=0.003)	0.940 (0.93 to 0.95)*	0.75 (SE=0.005)
Model 2	0.913 (0.90 to 0.92)	0.81 (SE=0.003)	0.927 (0.92 to 0.94)	0.75 (SE=0.005)
Model 3	0.917 (0.91 to 0.93)*	0.81 (SE=0.003)	0.927 (0.91 to 0.94)	0.75 (SE=0.005)
Model 4	0.919 (0.91 to 0.93)*	0.81 (SE=0.003)	0.927 (0.91 to 0.94)	0.75 (SE=0.005)
Model 5	0.948 (0.94 to 0.96)*	0.80 (SE=0.003)	0.939 (0.93 to 0.95)*	0.75 (SE=0.005)
Model 6	0.909 (0.90 to 0.92)*	0.81 (SE=0.003)	0.927 (0.91 to 0.94)	0.75 (SE=0.005)
		Men (n=173 130)
	3411 events		1677 deaths
Model 1	0.934 (0.92 to 0.95)*	0.80 (SE=0.003)	0.925 (0.91 to 0.94)*	0.75 (SE=0.007)
Model 2	0.916 (0.90 to 0.93)	0.80 (SE=0.003)	0.911 (0.90 to 0.93)	0.75 (SE=0.007)
Model 3	0.918 (0.91 to 0.93)†	0.80 (SE=0.003)	0.911 (0.89 to 0.93)	0.75 (SE=0.007)
Model 4	0.918 (0.91 to 0.93)†	0.80 (SE=0.003)	0.910 (0.89 to 0.93)	0.75 (SE=0.007)
Model 5	0.946 (0.94 to 0.96)*	0.80 (SE=0.003)	0.927 (0.91 to 0.94)*	0.74 (SE=0.007)
Model 6	0.910 (0.90 to 0.92)*	0.80 (SE=0.003)	0.909 (0.89 to 0.92)	0.75 (SE=0.007)
		Women (n=142 986)
	1349 events		1259 deaths
Model 1	0.945 (0.93 to 0.96)*	0.75 (SE=0.006)	0.961 (0.94 to 0.98)	0.75 (SE=0.008)
Model 2	0.907 (0.89 to 0.93)	0.76 (SE=0.006)	0.949 (0.93 to 0.97)	0.75 (SE=0.007)
Model 3	0.915 (0.90 to 0.93)*	0.76 (SE=0.006)	0.948 (0.93 0.97)	0.75 (SE=0.007)
Model 4	0.919 (0.90 to 0.94)*	0.76 (SE=0.006)	0.949 (0.93 to 0.97)	0.75 (SE=0.008)
Model 5	0.951 (0.93 to 0.97)*	0.75 (SE=0.006)	0.956 (0.94 to 0.97)	0.75 (SE=0.008)
Model 6	0.906 (0.89 to 0.92)	0.76 (SE=0.006)	0.952 (0.93 to 0.97)	0.75 (SE=0.007)
		Age ≤50 (n=233 983)
	1822 events		1128 deaths
Model 1	0.869 (0.85 to 0.88)*	0.67 (SE=0.007)	0.896 (0.88 to 0.91)*	0.61 (SE=0.01)
Model 2	0.820 (0.81 to 0.83)	0.70 (SE=0.007)	0.863 (0.85 to 0.88)	0.62 (SE=0.01)
Model 3	0.827 (0.81 to 0.84)*	0.70 (SE=0.007)	0.866 (0.85 to 0.89)	0.62 (SE=0.01)
Model 4	0.829 (0.81 to 0.84)*	0.69 (SE=0.007)	0.867 (0.85 to 0.89)	0.62 (SE=0.01)
Model 5	0.879 (0.86 to 0.89)*	0.66 (SE=0.007)	0.898 (0.88 to 0.92)*	0.60 (SE=0.01)
Model 6	0.814 (0.80 to 0.83)*	0.70 (SE=0.007)	0.862 (0.84 to 0.88)	0.63 (SE=0.01)
		Age >50 (n=82 133)
	2938 events		1808 deaths
Model 1	0.921 (0.91 to 0.93)*	0.66 (SE=0.005)	0.912 (0.90 to 0.93)	0.59 (SE=0.008)
Model 2	0.911 (0.90 to 0.92)	0.67 (SE=0.005)	0.908 (0.89 to 0.92)	0.59 (SE=0.008)
Model 3	0.911 (0.90 to 0.92)	0.67 (SE=0.005)	0.904 (0.89 to 0.92)	0.60 (SE=0.008)
Model 4	0.912 (0.90 to 0.92)	0.67 (SE=0.005)	0.903 (0.89 to 0.92)*	0.60 (SE=0.008)
Model 5	0.933 (0.92 to 0.95)*	0.66 (SE=0.005)	0.911 (0.90 to 0.93)	0.59 (SE=0.008)
Model 6	0.906 (0.89 to 0.92)*	0.67 (SE=0.005)	0.907 (0.89 to 0.92)	0.59 (SE=0.008)

B: HR (95% CI) per quintile and concordance for CVD risk and all-cause mortality for models 1–8 in the restricted sample (n=63 380)
	CVD risk			All-cause mortality
	HR (95% CI)	P value trend	Concordance	HR (95% CI)	P value trend	Concordance
			All (n=63 380)
	391 events			185 deaths
Model 1	0.842 (0.78 to 0.91)†	<0.001	0.81 (SE=0.01)	0.881 (0.79 to 0.98)	0.019	0.72 (SE=0.023)
Model 2	0.800 (0.74 to 0.86)	<0.001	0.81 (SE=0.01)	0.907 (0.82 to 1.01)	0.069	0.72 (SE=0.023)
Model 3	0.805 (0.75 to 0.87)	<0.001	0.81 (SE=0.01)	0.890 (0.80 to 0.99)	0.03	0.72 (SE=0.023)
Model 4	0.814 (0.76 to 0.88)	<0.001	0.81 (SE=0.01)	0.911 (0.82 to 1.01)	0.082	0.72 (SE=0.023)
Model 5	0.864 (0.80 to 0.93)‡	<0.001	0.81 (SE=0.01)	0.875 (0.79 to 0.97)	0.013	0.72 (SE=0.023)
Model 6	0.788 (0.73 to 0.85)	<0.001	0.82 (SE=0.01)	0.903 (0.81 to 1.00)	0.059	0.72 (SE=0.023)
Model 7	0.781 (0.72 to 0.84)	<0.001	0.82 (SE=0.01)	0.880 (0.79 to 0.98)	0.019	0.72 (SE=0.023)
Model 8	0.774 (0.72 to 0.84)	<0.001	0.82 (SE=0.01)	0.906 (0.81 to 1.01)	0.069	0.72 (SE=0.023)
			Men (n=38 677)
	298 events			130 deaths
Model 1	0.823 (0.75 to 0.90)	<0.001	0.81 (SE=0.012)	0.841 (0.74 to 0.96)	0.008	0.69 (SE=0.031)
Model 2	0.807 (0.74 to 0.88)	<0.001	0.82 (SE=0.011)	0.874 (0.77 to 0.99)	0.037	0.69 (SE=0.031)
Model 3	0.805 (0.74 to 0.88)	<0.001	0.82 (SE=0.012)	0.859 (0.76 to 0.97)	0.018	0.69 (SE=0.031)
Model 4	0.814 (0.75 to 0.89)	<0.001	0.82 (SE=0.012)	0.882 (0.78 to 1.00)	0.05	0.69 (SE=0.031)
Model 5	0.848 (0.78 to 0.92)†	<0.001	0.81 (SE=0.012)	0.849 (0.75 to 0.96)	0.011	0.69 (SE=0.031)
Model 6	0.786 (0.72 to 0.86)†	<0.001	0.82 (SE=0.011)	0.868 (0.76 to 0.99)	0.028	0.69 (SE=0.031)
Model 7	0.794 (0.73 to 0.87)	<0.001	0.82 (SE=0.012)	0.877 (0.77 to 1.00)	0.043	0.69 (SE=0.031)
Model 8	0.796 (0.73 to 0.87)	<0.001	0.82 (SE=0.012)	0.912 (0.80 to 1.04)	0.157	0.69 (SE=0.031)
			Women (n=24 703)
	93 events			55 deaths
Model 1	0.906 (0.78 to 1.05)‡	0.187	0.77 (SE=0.02)	0.973 (0.81 to 1.17)	0.773	0.77 (SE=0.032)
Model 2	0.776 (0.66 to 0.91)	0.001	0.78 (SE=0.018)	0.992 (0.82 to 1.20)	0.931	0.77 (SE=0.032)
Model 3	0.805 (0.69 to 0.94)	0.006	0.78 (SE=0.018)	0.970 (0.80 to 1.18)	0.753	0.77 (SE=0.032)
Model 4	0.814 (0.70 to 0.95)	0.008	0.78 (SE=0.018)	0.986 (0.81 to 1.19)	0.888	0.77 (SE=0.032)
Model 5	0.916 (0.79 to 1.06)‡	0.246	0.77 (SE=0.020)	0.943 (0.78 to 1.14)	0.549	0.77 (SE=0.032)
Model 6	0.793 (0.68 to 0.93)	0.003	0.79 (SE=0.018)	0.994 (0.82 to 1.20)	0.953	0.77 (SE=0.032)
Model 7	0.742 (0.63 to 0.87)	<0.001	0.79 (SE=0.017)	0.885 (0.73 to 1.08)†	0.225	0.77 (SE=0.032)
Model 8	0.705 (0.60 to 0.83)†	<0.001	0.79 (SE=0.017)	0.886 (0.73 to 1.08)†	0.23	0.77 (SE=0.032)
			Age ≤50 (n=47 018)
	120 events			64 deaths
Model 1	0.735 (0.64 to 0.84)‡	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.026)	0.846 (0.71 to 1.01)	0.065	0.62 (SE=0.037)
Model 2	0.641 (0.56 to 0.74)	<0.001	0.70 (SE=0.024)	0.825 (0.69 to 0.99)	0.034	0.62 (SE=0.036)
Model 3	0.640 (0.55 to 0.74)	<0.001	0.71 (SE=0.024)	0.809 (0.68 to 0.97)	0.02	0.62 (SE=0.037)
Model 4	0.651 (0.56 to 0.75)	<0.001	0.70 (SE=0.024)	0.817 (0.68 to 0.98)	0.026	0.62 (SE=0.036)
Model 5	0.763 (0.67 to 0.87)	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.027)	0.832 (0.70 to 0.99)	0.041	0.63 (SE=0.037)
Model 6	0.621 (0.54 to 0.72)	<0.001	0.71 (SE=0.023)	0.811 (0.68 to 0.97)	0.022	0.62 (SE=0.035)
Model 7	0.579 (0.50 to 0.67)‡	<0.001	0.73 (SE=0.022)	0.770 (0.64 to 0.92)	0.005	0.63 (SE=0.037)
Model 8	0.565 (0.48 to 0.66)‡	<0.001	0.73 (SE=0.021)	0.807 (0.67 to 0.97)	0.02	0.62 (SE=0.035)
			Age >50 (n=16 362)
	271 events			121 deaths
Model 1	0.806 (0.74 to 0.88)	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.019)	0.815 (0.71 to 0.93)	0.002	0.60 (SE=0.032)
Model 2	0.789 (0.72 to 0.86)	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.018)	0.856 (0.75 to 0.98)	0.019	0.57 (SE=0.032)
Model 3	0.792 (0.73 to 0.87)	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.018)	0.838 (0.74 to 0.96)	0.008	0.58 (SE=0.032)
Model 4	0.799 (0.73 to 0.87)	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.018)	0.865 (0.76 to 0.98)	0.028	0.57 (SE=0.031)
Model 5	0.823 (0.76 to 0.90)	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.018)	0.819 (0.72 to 0.93)	0.003	0.59 (SE=0.03)
Model 6	0.779 (0.71 to 0.85)	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.019)	0.856 (0.75 to 0.98)	0.02	0.57 (SE=0.032)
Model 7	0.780 (0.71 to 0.85)	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.018)	0.833 (0.73 to 0.95)	0.006	0.58 (SE=0.031)
Model 8	0.782 (0.72 to 0.85)	<0.001	0.66 (SE=0.018)	0.852 (0.75 to 0.97)	0.016	0.57 (SE=0.031)

P value trend <0.001 for all values.
*Sign. difference (p<0.01) from model 2 (mL.min⁻¹/kg⁻¹).
†Trend (p<0.05) from model 2.
‡Sign. difference (p<0.007) from model 2 (mL·min^−1·kg⁻¹).
CVD, cardiovascular disease.