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Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation
  1. Margie K Olds1,
  2. Richard Ellis2,
  3. Priya Parmar3,
  4. Paula Kersten4
  1. 1 Flawless Motion, Auckland, New Zealand
  2. 2 Health and Rehabilitation Research Institute, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
  3. 3 Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
  4. 4 School of Health Sciences, University of Brighton, Brighton, UK
  1. Correspondence to Margie K Olds; margie{at}


Objective To develop a multivariate tool that would predict recurrent instability after a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation.

Methods Participants (aged 16–40 years) were recruited across New Zealand into a prospective cohort study. Baseline data were collected during a telephone interview and through examination of radiology records. Variables associated with recurrent instability were selected for the multivariate logistic regression model using backwards selection (p<0.10). Coefficients for those variables retained in the model were used to develop the predictive tool.

Results Among the 128 participants, 36% had redislocated at least once in the first 12 months. Univariate analysis showed an increased likelihood of recurrent dislocation with bony Bankart lesions (OR=3.65, 95% CI 1.05 to 12.70, p=0.04) and participants who had: not been immobilised in a sling (OR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.98, p=0.05), higher levels of shoulder activity (OR=1.13, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.27, p=0.03), higher levels of pain and disability (OR=1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06, p=0.02), higher levels of fear of reinjury (OR=1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.26, p=0.04) and decreased quality of life (OR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02, p=0.05). There was no significant difference in those with non-dominant compared with dominant shoulder dislocations (p=0.10) or in those aged 16–25 years compared with 26–40 years (p=0.07).

Conclusion Six of seven physical and psychosocial factors can be used to predict recurrent shoulder instability following a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation.

  • shoulder dislocation
  • prospective study
  • fear
  • recurrence
  • pain

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  • Contributors MKO designed the study, collected the data, designed the statistical analysis, analysed the data and drafted and revised the paper. RE and PK monitored data collection, assisted with methods development, and helped draft and revise the manuscript. PP assisted with statistical design and data analysis.

  • Funding We thank NZ Manipulative Physiotherapy Association, Shoulder Elbow Physiotherapy Australasia, Sports Medicine New Zealand, Physiotherapy New Zealand-Auckland Branch and Auckland University of Technology for their financial assistance.

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Patient consent for publication Not required.

  • Ethics approval Auckland University of Technology (14/256) and Accident Compensation Corporation (No 272) ethics committees.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; internally peer reviewed.

  • Data sharing statement All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information.